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Wirehead Studios > General Discussion > Off-Topic > The Sun Has Awakened
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Phoenix
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« on: 2008-03-26, 17:06 »
Since Sunday, three large sunspots have appeared on the previously quiet sun, and solar X-ray emissions began to increase.  Yesterday an M-2 class solar flare was detected.  Solar wind speed is up from a rather large coronal hole, and a moderate geomagnetic storm is underway as a result.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5mBL.html

The spike on the graph for Mar 25 is the solar flare.  For those reading this after Mar27, it will no longer be visible on the graph by then.

This should not change though.  Here's a look at the visible sunspots:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/real...e/javagif/gifs/20080326_1424_mdi_igr.gif

Here's a look at ultraviolet emissions from the sun:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/real...e/javagif/gifs/20080326_1548_eit_195.gif

You can see the twisted magnetic fields around them.  The one on the left is what generated the solar flare.  There remains a 50% chance for more M-class solar flares over the next 48 hours and 5% chance of an X-class flare.  The various classes of solar flare are C, which is weakest, M which is moderate, and X which is severe.  X-class flares are capable of lethal radiation doses for astronauts in EVA, satellite disruptions, and even knocking out earth-based power grids, provided the flare is aimed directly at the planet and the interplanetary magnetic field is southward leaning in polarity.  Since the sunspots are aligned roughly equatorial, it means they could fire off flares or coronal mass ejections directly at earth once they come into alignment.

It's rather interesting that after an overly lengthy dormant phase the sun is waking up with a bit of a bad temper.  Three major sunspots and a solar flare within 72 hours from the sun being dead quiet with minimal X-ray emissions.  That should get the attention of a lot of astronomers!  Read into it what you will that the sun woke up on Easter Sunday this year, but the solar minimum appears to be at an end either way.  Provided this isn't just a brief flare up, we may be looking at drastically increased solar activity and the resultant implications for the Earth as well.
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fourier
 
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« Reply #1 on: 2008-03-26, 18:09 »
Bad news for me Slipgate - Sad, I was hoping we were at the dawn of another mini-iceage which I would get to enjoy (I hate the heat) in a decade or two.
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Phoenix
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« Reply #2 on: 2008-03-27, 08:01 »
Flare and CME effects happen within minutes and days, respectively, but there is some lag time between sunspot activity and effects on earth-based weather.  The massive hurricane season hit a few years after we had all those solar flares, and the sun was already on its way to quieting when Florida was getting sacked.  If it's a 3-4 year lag time, assuming we hit heavy solar activity in 2008-2010, the temperature and weather results might not be quite apparent until 2012-2014.  We can still have hot summers without sunspots though, as without the extra particle discharges to "seed" the upper atmosphere, you don't get the same kind of cloud generation.  I know last year was a drought here.  Winter storms don't cut it for making up precipitation.  It needs to fall during the growing season.
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« Reply #3 on: 2008-03-27, 23:56 »
I was talking about more of the long-long term effects, hehe:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/11/1130_051130_ice_age.html
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Science/200...07/scientist_predicts_mini_ice_age/2345/

Half-serious of course, since they were only predictions.  With the sun "waking up" it seems to lower the probability of the latter link's prediction coming true.
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Phoenix
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« Reply #4 on: 2008-03-28, 00:32 »
The notion of carbon dioxide emissions causing a global catastrophe I've never accepted.  Volcanic eruptions spew out more carbon than the entire industrial world could ever hope to, and if the earth's climate is that fragile then the Global Warming people should start embracing Young Earth Creationism because there's no way the planet's biosphere could have survived a billion years worth of punishment, and they'll need a miracle to survive what's coming if they're right.  Personally I'm with Einstein in that I don't think God plays with dice, nor do I think the Earth was made just so hairless apes could screw it up beyond repair.  But then, I'm just a mythical creature so what do I know anyway?  Slipgate - Tongue
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Thomas Mink
 

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« Reply #5 on: 2008-03-28, 00:49 »
Quote from: Phoenix on 2008-03-28, 00:32
nor do I think the Earth was made just so hairless apes could screw it up beyond repair  Slipgate - Tongue

I'll say it might not have been made for that reason, but it'll happen anyway. But that's just me. Slipgate - Smile
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Phoenix
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« Reply #6 on: 2008-04-14, 15:38 »
Looks like the sun was just rolling in its sleep.  Those sunspots were the last ones from solar cycle 23.  There's one small spot on the sun that's identified as part of cycle 24.  You can tell because the N-S polarity on the sunspot is flipped as to which pole is leading during the sun's rotation.  The solar maximum is due to peak in (drum roll) 2012...
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