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Author Topic: WTF? (Number in hurricane eye?)  (Read 7486 times)
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Phoenix
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« on: 2005-10-30, 01:18 »

http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle....leid=4715&z=3&p

Normally you'd think this sort of thing is a hoax... but watch the radar loop.  It does make one wonder.
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Lopson
 

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« Reply #1 on: 2005-10-30, 09:43 »

What was that? The only thing I see is a swirling thing at the worst part of the hurricane... so what? Are you trying to say that that is an UFO? That can be another hurricane in formation.
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« Reply #2 on: 2005-10-30, 09:53 »

No, look in the eye of the storm.   There's a perfect numeral "2" in the eye, offset at a slight angle.
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« Reply #3 on: 2005-11-03, 00:38 »

I said there was evidance that we were living in a construct!

remember the cold fusion thing a few years ago?
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Phoenix
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« Reply #4 on: 2005-11-03, 09:12 »

Quote from: shambler
I said there was evidance that we were living in a construct!
Well, those of us who believe God created the universe know this.  Slipgate - Laugh
I just wonder where the "2" came from.  Here are the possible explanations as I see them:

1)  It's a hoax, and someone was playing with the radar feed.  The fact that it's "channel 2" with a "2" as the number raises a good deal of suspicion.
2)  It's a completely random event, either a system glitch or freak act of nature.
3)  The radar signature is genuine, which leads to the following sub-options:
a)  Man somehow influenced the weather to to cause this.
b)  Something other than man influenced the weather to cause this

I have no way to determine if option 1 is correct because I have no independent raw radar feed to compare it to.  Option 2 is nearly statistically impossible.  Option 3 is the scary one.  It means either those weather manipulation conspiracy theories are true, or something even more ominous is occuring, like aliens or something supernatural.  I guess we'll never know, but if something like this happens again it certainly bears watching.
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Tabun
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« Reply #5 on: 2005-11-03, 12:29 »

Statistical impossibility is as dangerous to assume as the importance of statistics themselves, and I have heard many complain about the latter. Humans are very good in detecting visual likenesses (even when there is no reason to). We've seen faces on mars, supernovae in shapes of eyes, faces and other 'constructs'. The likeness is uncanny, but so is our ability to overreact to it. a) The number is by no means perfect: it is gappy. The only thing it is nigh perfect in, is its effect on the human mind to fill in those gaps. b) You can see the swirl pumping bits into the eye in a rather convincing pattern. Whatever is happening fits in snugly in the complex system of things we are keen to call nature, without having to jump to conclusions about it - at least, that's what it looks like to me.

If humans created a storm, they would probably not be so silly as to press their stamp on it in this fashion. Besides, man hardly is able to control anything yet, so I'm ruling out B-movie Sci-Fi plots wherein not only people control the general effect of the weather, but they do it in so much detail as to hide pointless easter-eggs in their produce - Think about the immense calculations that would be required to produce a single straight line convincingly, for instance. If something else created the storm, it would probably have used a language of symbols befitting its created world, not some arbitrary human sign. Why bother if you know the only meaning you're going to convey is something that the observers will come up with themselves?

If it pops up again with a '3' or something within the next thousand years or so, I'm willing to agree that something else than 'freak chance' might be going on. For now, I'm not going to grab my 'theeleaves' and 'wicca board', but just sit back and relax. Isn't there an island somewhere shaped exactly like Winston Churchill? ;]
« Last Edit: 2005-11-03, 12:30 by Tabun » Logged

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« Reply #6 on: 2005-11-03, 13:44 »

Oh, there's a 2. Neat.  Slipgate - Exhausted
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« Reply #7 on: 2005-11-03, 19:00 »

Quote from: Tabun
We've seen faces on mars, supernovae in shapes of eyes, faces and other 'constructs'. The likeness is uncanny, but so is our ability to overreact to it.
Yet on the other hand, I've also heard it said "it is impossible to convince a skeptic of anything".  Any level of evidence will be wanting, and any amount of proof will be insufficient.  The skeptic's self-assuredness of their being reasonable in all matters is an insurmountable obstacle, yet they will deny at any time that they are dealing in absolutes.  This constant hedging and fidgeting, moving of goal posts, and perpetual mutability assures that the skeptic will only believe and accept that which is already preconceived in their minds, the level of proof required to disprove their thinking always exceeding the amount of evidence available to the contrary.

Comparing other "fringe" phenomena with this specific event, in my opinion, is just an attempt at discrediting the event in question.

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The number is by no means perfect: it is gappy. The only thing it is nigh perfect in, is its effect on the human mind to fill in those gaps. b) You can see the swirl pumping bits into the eye in a rather convincing pattern.
You're also leaving out the fact that doppler radar feeds are filtered, the same way earthquake data is filtered.  Only radar echos of a certain threshold are plotted on these models.  There's a lot of weaker radar data that gets left out because the raw data contains a lot of noise.  I don't see the lack of "perfection" here as reason to dismiss the radar data.  The fact that the number retains its overall shape over several frames should not be ignored either.

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If humans created a storm, they would probably not be so silly as to press their stamp on it in this fashion.
I think quite the opposite is true.  Ever hear the phrase, "If you've got it, flaunt it"?  What a better way to exhibit your superiority over the populace in general than to do something completely absurd that nobody can do anything at all about, and in plain sight?  After all, who would believe it?  People are conditioned to distrust their eyes when they witness things that don't fit in with the mundane world around them.  After all, we all know that fairies and goblins aren't real, so if you see one it must be in your head... right?

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Besides, man hardly is able to control anything yet
That's a very dangerous blanket assumption.  I should not have to elaborate as to why.

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Think about the immense calculations that would be required to produce a single straight line convincingly, for instance.
Think about the complexity of the computer equipment required to create meteorologic weather models.  Now square that computational power, and you have what the military has.  Besides that, it could be something as simple as somebody flying a hurricane hunter airplane with cloud-seeding material on a predetermined flight path.  The resultant clouds would show up on radar easily, or are we to dismiss skywriting airplanes as requiring too complex a flight plan as well?

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If something else created the storm, it would probably have used a language of symbols befitting its created world, not some arbitrary human sign. Why bother if you know the only meaning you're going to convey is something that the observers will come up with themselves?
That's assuming a specific intent on the part of whoever created such a thing, provided something or someone did in the first place.  That's like saying "God wouldn't write obscure prophecies or parables, he'd write the universe's secrets so that everyone cound understand them".  The mistake there is in telling God what to do.  In this instance, you're making the mistake of dictating to the power how it must behave, and defining its constraints, intents, and results.  First, if someone did intend a "message", who says it would be for their own benefit?  If an experiment was undertaken to gauge the reaction of a species, what a better way than to create an anomaly with something obviously recognizeable to the species in question?  I can see numerous avenues of research that could utilize just such an activity.  Then there's also the possibility of a "flyby grafiti artist".  Who says some space travelers don't have a sense of humor?  Your argument here has served the effect to do the following:  1)  Create a condition upon the anomaly to dictate intent, and 2)  To set up an arbitrary condition with which to categorically dismiss the possibility through absurdity.

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If it pops up again with a '3' or something within the next thousand years or so, I'm willing to agree that something else than 'freak chance' might be going on. For now, I'm not going to grab my 'theeleaves' and 'wicca board', but just sit back and relax. Isn't there an island somewhere shaped exactly like Winston Churchill? ;]
Now I'll admit this may be your sense of humor talking, but I can't just dismiss the fact that it looks like your intent is to make a mockery out of the entire thing.  Is it really that disturbing that you choose to not deal with it, and dismiss it, as opposed to exploring the possibilitiy that something more interesting may be going on?

This is something I probably will never understand is why anyone would want to live in such a dull, uninteresting world, where nothing exciting or unusual, or interesting ever happens, where the fantastic is mocked, where the incredible is limited to the world of children's imaginations.  You have finally answered one question for me though.  I can now understand why the godless don't believe in an afterlife.  Why would anyone want to live forever in such a dull and boring place?  I'd prefer oblivion to that myself.  Thank God I know better.

*sigh*  All I want is for people to look beyond the mundane and see what could be.  I'm not saying what anything is or isn't.[/color]
« Last Edit: 2005-11-03, 19:05 by Phoenix » Logged


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Tabun
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« Reply #8 on: 2005-11-03, 20:22 »

It should be obvious that I'm leaning to the far other end - in the above message. It is equally obvious that these attacks and refutations could go on forever. "it is impossible to convince a skeptic of anything" is the same as "it is impossible to convince a gnostic of anything's opposite". I realize my attacks weren't particularly strong, not by what they referred to, but by my lack of particular knowledge about the subject.
I will mention here that my statement about man's inability to control things is put rather bluntly. I'm of the opinion that we aren't quite up there with the Star Trek technology yet. As such, it was to indicate an unlikelyhood, not an impossibility. In regards to the "mistake [..] in telling God what to do", this works both ways. Reading something as a message from an 'unknown higher being' is in itself an act of assigning intent and meaning. Again, it is neither impossible nor unlikely to me that a higher being of any kind would use a different kind of language than we do. The contrary is equally possible, but less likely to me (and I do realize I'm taking liberties there) - I would sooner see a god trying to tell me something through a rainbow, than I would see him in this week's horoscope. If there is an essential difference, and whether the '2' here is more like the former or like the latter, is another interesting matter. :]

I usually try to detect what the prominent reaction to something is and express (if acceptable and probable enough by my personal standards) the opposite. Sometimes I go into extremes, other times I refrain from it. You have tried enough times to understand me to realize that I do not bind myself to a foolish extreme, even though I'm willing to propose and even defend it when I see a purpose for it. If a 'discussion' is held where a group of people consequently bash something like pornography, the first thing that pops to my mind is: "what merit has the opposite view here?", "is everyone aware of the possibility of other views?", "is this decided here, for some reason?" - and if so - "why is there a discussion if it has?", et cetera. Mind you, I have no desire to bash hopes or troll (even though it will seem like that to some), I just honestly think matters aren't decided and, to put it more or less poetically: "daydreaming must be opposed by 'night'dreaming".

In a last, more serious remark: I find it strange that people would think a universe without some kind of 'higer being', or without aliens or a specific definition of 'purpose' could be boring, dull or wrong in some way. My view of the world, even on days when I'm pondering the possibility of a fully deterministic, materialistic and 'meaningless' reality, I don't see this as a Bad Thing ?. Think of the way Kant built his idealism on the very concept of a messageless, undefined transcendental world and what this allows mankind to do with it. Aside from such a viewpoint (and its unavoidable extremes), there are many other ways in which meaning, adventure, pleasure and fulfillment are possible.

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*sigh* All I want is for people to look beyond the mundane and see what could be

I'm sorry for crashing your party there, that wasn't the point of it. Rest assured, I am taking other views in consideration as well (that's part of being a true and honest skeptic - self-assuredness is exactly what does not fit into the picture) - I just don't feel like typing about them, seeing as how there's plenty of adequate text to read about most of them, even on these boards right here.
This will probably go for other material in the future, just in case you might run into it again sometime.
« Last Edit: 2005-11-03, 20:28 by Tabun » Logged

Tabun ?Morituri Nolumus Mori?
Phoenix
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« Reply #9 on: 2005-11-04, 09:34 »

Quote from: Tabun
Rest assured, I am taking other views in consideration as well
That's all I'd ever ask for.
Quote
I usually try to detect what the prominent reaction to something is and express (if acceptable and probable enough by my personal standards) the opposite.
I know you take the contrary position quite often, however I wasn't initially putting forth any argument for or against any specific possibility.  I was only showing what the potentials were, and which ones would be more unnerving in comparison to others, and pointing out how unlikely it was that the event was completely random in nature.  I fully accept the possibility that somebody in the control room might have been having fun with the software that day.  If anything, I consider this the most likely explanation.  You actually took the initiative in your response to this one, or at the very least you attempted anticipation.  I simply took the contrary position to what you were stating in response.[/color]  Slipgate - Wink
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Tabun
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« Reply #10 on: 2005-11-04, 13:33 »

Hmm, I see.

Maybe I jumped onto it a little hard and fast, indeed. It must be the heavy dose of superstition-revival that the Netherlands is currently undergoing that urged me to do so. Or maybe my reading of Louis Theroux' run in with Heaven's Gate, UFO believers, TV-evangelists inspired me (if you remember his BBC TV show that was on years ago 'Weird Weekends', this book is about a tour in which he re-visits those people and sees how they're doing).

In any case: carry on :]
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Phoenix
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« Reply #11 on: 2005-11-06, 07:37 »

Well as far as UFO's are concerned, I certainly believe because I'm one of them! (Unfraggable Flapping Object)  Slipgate - Laugh

All kidding aside, I'm sure of UFO's myself, simply because I accept the strictest definitiion - unidentified flying objects.  If I see something in the sky, and I don't know what it is, it's a UFO.  That's the literal definition.  Unidentified doesn't necessarily necessarily mean anomalous.  It could be an airplane, or a baloon, or a flock of fellow avians on a migration, but if I can't tell what it is, then it's unidentified.

Now as far as aerial anomalies are concerned, yes I have seen many myself.  I shall describe an object that was certainly something other than a mundane, expected airborne entity.  It was humongous - over 1200 feet (400 meters) long, silent, black, shaped like a broad spearpoint, with a pattern of dim lights on it that appeared as stars so that if it were motionless against the night sky you could not see it.  It was also invisible to radar, and the only reason I saw it, even with my keen eyesight, was that it had a gaping hole in it the size of a bus where something had either impacted it and exploded, or else exploded from within, and it was leaving a trail of golden sparks that would rival any video game's particle effects engine.  Not only that, but I saw the entire outline of the craft because it flew under the clouds.  I do not think that was the intention of the pilot as until it flew under the cloud all you could see was the spark trail, and owing to the damage it was conceivable that it was losing power as it descended.  It also had a solid surface with a matte appearance so it did not easily reflect light at all, but against the cloud I could tell it was a rigid shape, not something mutable.  I have a keen eye for the height of clouds at any altitude, and this gave me a perspective of size, velocity, mass, and course projection.  Well, this craft, for there is no other name for it, traveled completely silently and was moving to the east northeast of my position at approximately 400 MPH.  Now I can say it was invisible to radar because it flew close to a nearby airforce base along that heading.  When it was within visual range (by my estimate) of the base I heard the thunderous roar of fighters being scrambled.  If you have never heard a fighter scramble, it is an impressive sound.  Planes being launched at full afterburn, en masse, is one of the loudest things you will ever hear in your life.  Had this "thing" been visible on radar, obviously they would have launched these planes much much sooner because it was well within radar range when it flew overhead of me.

This was over two decades ago.  At that time, no stealth aircraft were of public knowledge but certainly did exist, and this thing was invisible to radar.  Not only that, it moved silently and fast, and AGAINST the wind.  I have heard numerous supposed explanations - the one in the newspapers the next day was that of "space debris", which I find interesting that space debris can fly at under 5,000 feet without burning up, especially considering nobody has anything "officially" that large in orbit, to later explanations that it was a "stealth blimp".  I've seen pictures of the design of supposed stealth blimps, which are high-altitude dirigibles.  MOST of the characteristics fit, however from what I saw they would not be the proper shape, are far too small, nor could they move at such a low altitude against the wind and under power without making a hell of a lot of noise from whatever was pushing them.  This thing was larger than an aircraft carrier and didn't make a sound.  The following list of attributes applies to what I saw:

1)  Flew silently.
2)  Massive size, larger than a modern aircraft carrier.
3)  Invisible to radar.
4)  Distinct visual profile like a spear point (NOT a triangle, as most supposed stealth blimp reports have been)
5)  Chased by military aircraft once within sight of an air base
6)  Seen during the mid 1980's
7)  Starfield effect on the hull

So what am I to conclude about this?  Obviously it's not a naturally occuring object.  Someone built it, either man, or something other than man.  Let's see how the above attributes apply:

If built by man:

1)  Not known at the time.  A normal aircraft at that altitude would have been thunderous.  A dirigible would not have been able to move silently against the wind at that high a speed.  It's possible it could have been descending unpowered due to stalled engines if it were a rigid craft, but a lighter-than-air craft is suspect.
2)  Not known at the time, at least for an aircraft.  Stealth blimps are not reported to be this large either.
3)  Known for the time.  The F-117 was developed during the 1970's, however such a LARGE stealth plane would be questionable.
4)  Not known at the time, but possible.
5)  If a secret project, quite possible since the normal air command would not know of it.
6)  The only obvious tech for this time would be a stealth blimp.
7)  Well-placed lights can simulate this

If not built by man, assuming some other intelligence capable of reaching earth:

1)  Easily done in theory
2)  Easily done in theory
3)  Easily done in theory
4)  Easily done in theory
5)  Would not have been seen at all except for the visual clue from the damage
6)  Easily done in theory
7)  Easily done in theory

Conclusion?  Certainly possible it was a stealth blimp, but questionable, as nobody has ever seen anything precisely like this before or after this specific incident.  It certainly could have been a human construct of unknown design with an unconventional or else failed propulsion system.  The speed of such an object with that large a profile does raise some questions regarding the blimp explanation.  If some other intelligence built it, all of these points are possible and very easy in concept, which might make one tend to more easily believe that simply because it would be easier for an outside intelligence with superior technology to pull off.  Does it mean some other intelligence did build it?  No.  But if not, it certainly increases the level of technological sophistication for the military of that time to a much more advanced level.  At present, nobody even knows if the military even has a stealth blimp because nothing's been declassified.  There is no "good" explanation for what this thing is, only what it's not.  What it's not is a conventional air or spacecraft, nor is it space debris.

To me it remains a complete unknown, and probably always will - until some day as I should see another, and who or what is piloting it.  Just one example of many odd things I've experienced that remain unexplained.
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« Reply #12 on: 2005-11-06, 11:17 »

Of many? Well, you are a Phoenix... You must be some hundred years old, and in the last hundred years, you must have seen a lot of things happening. The UFO you just described must be awesome. Do you know if it was shot down by the Fs?
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« Reply #13 on: 2005-11-06, 12:32 »

I do not know what happened to it after it passed beyond my visual range over the horizon.
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